Russia Invades Ukraine: Putin Squares Up

 

I hoped against hope, but I erred on the side of optimism when it came to Russian intentions towards Ukraine. I tried not to be naive, but I guess I was, and was shocked at the news this morning. I have always regarded Putin as a "chancer", but thought of him as a realist. After all, war will bring no benefit to Russia. Twenty million Russians died in WW2, and many more will die during this invasion - along with many Ukrainians. So what's changed?

Well, if my assessment of Putin's personality now, and in previous posts, is correct, he operates like the leader of a street gang, though, of course, with more intelligence and better advisers. He has always seemed to me, based on his expressions, statements and actions to be the development of the surly kid who came from a tough background and fought his way to the top in the USSR. Except he didn't get to the top - he was a KGB operative and rose to the rank of colonel. My guess is that he felt himself deserving of better than that, and the same feeling of resentment that had driven him to be a KGB colonel, drove him on to be what he is: the new Russian czar. However, this would not have satisfied Putin; like the ex-street yobbo that he is, he directed his resentment outwards, towards what he regarded as Russia's enemies. And he's not hesitated to act on that - he has sent troops into Chechnya, Georgia and the Crimea. He has intervened militarily in Syria and menaced Ukraine for years. Many people have compared him to Hitler.

But he is not another Hitler. He is not an ideologue or a fanatic. I think he operates like the street gang member he was. As Wordsworth said: "The child is father of the man", and Putin will only act according to the instincts he developed on the streets as a kid. If he thought he could get away with crime, he did crime; if he thinks he can get away with aggression, he will do aggression. He is still a chancer - but a chancer with nuclear weapons. A chancer will nearly always back down when faced with determined opposition - provided he doesn't lose face. If NATO stands up to Putin, he must be offered a way out. Nuclear war would not matter to Putin, compared to an affront to his vanity. However, if he is not confronted effectively, he will continue to push his luck, and Eastern Europe would be definitely be at risk (and anyone else Putin took a dislike to).

Now, of course, Putin has more resources at his disposal than the leader of a teenage gang on a St Petersburg housing estate. The news today is humming with "news" of Russian money and its harmful influence on British politics, especially in the Conservative Party. It is no news to me, or many others. London has been a hub for laundering dirty Russian money for years. Putin sees the EU as a threat, and successfully supported the Brexit campaign. Russian friends of Putin have cosied up to politicians both here and in the USA. Nigel Farage is on record as saying to Alistair Campbell in the Guardian:

"Asked which current world leader he most admired, Farage replied: "As an operator... I would say Putin...The way he played the whole Syria thing. Brilliant."

Donald Trump has praised Putin only recently. The Times says:

"The former president told the conservative Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show: “I said, this is genius: Putin declares a big portion . . . of Ukraine as independent. How smart is that? And he’s gonna go in and be a peacekeeper. That’s [the] strongest peace force.”

Farage has reacted angrily in the past to reminders of his praise for Putin. He told Andrew Marr that it was a "boring question". So far, Mr Farage has been very quiet about today's invasion. As for Trump, I wonder how President Biden will react now. Imagine how President Roosevelt would have reacted, had the previous president (Hoover) spoken out in praise of Hitler in WW2.

For Ukraine, dark days lie ahead. As for us in the UK and the rest of Europe, we can recall the words of Sir Edward Grey on the outbreak of WW1 : 

"The lamps are going out all over Europe, we shall not see them lit again in our life-time".

Well, I don't think the lights are going out, but the cost of powering them will increase. We might not react militarily to Putin's aggression now, but we will have to sooner or later, if he continues like he is doing at the moment. The only real hope we have for a peaceful rapprochement is a new regime in Moscow, but that's unlikely - ask the present Russian opposition.

"You wanna be in my gang?".