Well, it's on. Rishi Sunak, giving a creditable impersonation of a drowned rat, has decided that US Independence day will be a good day for our next general election. We have six weeks before the election date of July 4th, and I am happy to contribute to the frenetic political discussions and media fuss that is to come. I make no apology for saying that I am looking forward to seeing the Conservatives lose - heavily.
There has been a good deal of speculation about why Sunak has decided to call an election now. The Guardian says:
"The prime minister has been saying for some weeks that there was evidence that the economy was improving. In his speech outside No 10, Sunak said the government had “reached two major milestones” of reducing inflation and growing the economy faster than other G7 countries".To me, this is astounding, as I'm sure it is for so many other people. I can only put Sunak's statement down to being born of desperation. Let's be honest: who would want the job of running the Conservative election campaign? As Keir Starmer said, quoted by Sky News:
"Sir Keir pointed to sewage in rivers, people "waiting on trolleys in A&E", crime going "virtually unpunished" and mortgages and food prices "through the roof". On 4 July you have a choice, and together we can stop the chaos, we can turn the page, we can start to rebuild Britain and change our country," he said".
We can all identify with those issues mentioned and, to a large extent, I share Sir Keir's optimism - with reservations, which I shall mention later. But only an amnesiac could fail to remember what a series of disasters and scandals have been visited upon us by this Conservative administration. My list starts with the Brexit campaign, which led to massive social division and post-Brexit economic chaos. There was the imposition of Austerity Economics by George Osborne. The Guardian comments here:
"Gerard Lyons, economic adviser to Boris Johnson when he was mayor of London and now chief economic strategist at Net Wealth says: “The whole period after 2010 was one of major fiscal mistakes. Austerity was wrong and badly executed. The ability to borrow cheaply was staring at us as a huge opportunity but was never taken.”
Then there was the blow to the economy from Liz Truss and her cronies. Despite being our shortest-serving prime minister, her deeds lingered on. Politico commented:
And - of course - we had the unedifying spectacle of a proven liar becoming PM - Boris Johnson, during whose tenure in office, British politics descended into the gutter. Have we forgotten? Among many other scandals, there was the unlawful prorogation of Parliament in September 2019; the channelling of public funds to Jennifer Arcuri in the same year; the Downing Street flat refurbishment of April 2021: his fine for breaking lockdown laws in April 2022. Matters were so bad that both Johnson's ethics advisers resigned in June of 2022. All ending in disgrace with the Chris Pincher scandal, here summarised by The Independent:
"Chris Pincher MP dramatically resigned as deputy chief whip on 30 June following allegations he assaulted two fellow guests the evening before at the Carlton Club, a Tory private members’ club in London.
Downing Street said Mr Johnson was not aware of any “specific allegations” about Mr Pincher when he appointed him to the whips office. It emerged over the following days that he was told about allegations against him as far back as 2019".
Hopefully, this will refresh any failing memories of the Tory record over the past 14 years. I apologise if I have left out any scandals of significance. However, I think this explains why I personally would not like the job of Tory campaign manager.
Unfortunately, there is an option that the Conservatives have that, as they would see it, could pay electoral dividends and that option is scapegoating. During the Brexit referendum campaign, EU migrants were targeted as the enemies within . There is every possibility that the Conservatives will make an issue out of migration and refugees who cross the English Channel in small boats. I believe that they will be forced into this because Reform UK certainly will make an issue of this topic, and could capture Tory votes. This was exhibited today by Anne Widdecombe at the launch of Reform UK's manifesto. The BBC quotes Widdecombe:
"The former Tory minister turned Reform UK member said immigration is the "crucial issue" at the election. She pointed to the latest net migration figures, which stood at a provisional 685,000 in the year to December 2023. She said this this was "nowhere near the 200,000 that we had been previously promised. Widdecombe said that having once been immigration minister, "I know very well that immigration has a tremendous impact on the country. There is no such thing as an economic movement which doesn't impact right across the scale."
The Conservatives will not want to lose votes to Widdecombe, Tice and the others. They will undoubtedly try to prove themselves as the party that is tough on immigration and seek to demonise "foreigners" of any convenient target group, whether it be asylum seekers or foreign-born workers who have lived here for decades and can thus be scapegoated for taking British jobs.
I hope I'm wrong, but, like I said, things can only get nasty. The Tories have no choice. We are in for a fraught six week electoral campaign.
Rishi Sunak looks a little shaky - he has good reason to feel that way.
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