Israel, Gaza and a Hamas Victory

In today's Guardian, there is an interesting article about the possibility of the different Palestinian organisations indicting Israel for war crimes. Hamas is apparently in agreement with this, although the article raises the point that Hamas itself could be arraigned by a war crimes court. As the article says: "After the last major round of Israel-Hamas fighting more than five years ago, a UN fact-finding team said both Israel and Hamas violated the rules of war by targeting civilians."
To me, this goes to the neglected heart of the matter in the Gaza conflict - the fact that both sides have been prepared to inflict civilian casualties. Personally, I find the conduct of both sides in the Gaza conflict deplorable, but there is an issue of realpolitik here that is being overlooked. It is the fact that Hamas has been prepared to accept civilian casualties, which has enabled them to win a propaganda victory.
Now, as I have noted before, the Gaza conflict, and the wider Israel/Palestine issue of which it is a part, arouses intense emotions. This is understandable, but we should not let our feelings for the deaths of innocents in Gaza or Israel cloud our judgement or analysis of the underlying strategic achievements and blunders of both parties. It is very difficult to do this, I find, as any criticism of either side brings accusations of favouring the other side. The BBC has been accused, in the past, of being pro-Israeli and pro-Palestinian by partisans of both opposing camps. Nevertheless, I shall try.
At the risk of repeating myself, I have noted before that provocation is a standard tactic by what can loosely be described as "guerrillas". History, and especially modern history, provides many examples (9/11, of course, is the most outstanding "provocation" of recent times). Spanish partisans used it against Napoleon; the Irish rebels who rose up against British rule at Easter, 1916, were clearly seeking, and got, a heavy-handed (and counter-productive) reaction from the British authorities; Soviet partisans in "quiet areas" behind German lines in World War Two employed the same tactic; Zionist partisans used it against British forces during the British mandate in Palestine (Now, there's an irony!) after the Second World War; the Viet Cong exploited the My Lai massacre; the IRA exploited Bloody Sunday in 1972. A more recent example occurred during the fighting in Iraq, when a group of US soldiers massacred some Iraqi civilians in the city of Haditha, providing invaluable propaganda for the Iraqi insurgents. It is debatable whether or not provocation was employed at My Lai, or on Bloody Sunday, but the result was the same.
All these events discredited the more powerful occupying powers and gave propaganda victories to the weaker, "guerrilla" sides.  Besides the publicity value of such actions, they provided a boost in recruitment to the guerrilla movements. After Bloody Sunday, for example, it is said that the IRA were turning away recruits.
Perhaps the most glaring example of this tactic came during the war for Algerian Independence, when, in 1955, the FLN resistance slaughtered over a hundred French civilians in the town of Philippeville. This provoked a ferocious French reaction during which, as the historian Alistair Horne noted in "A Savage War of Peace", up to 12 000 Algerians were killed. These reprisals took the lives of mostly innocent Algerian civilians, and discredited France in the eyes of the world. It also created even wider hatred of the French among Algerians, and led to more recruits for the FLN.
Now, if my analysis of resistance movements is correct, Hamas have learned the lessons of such previous conflicts very well. The present war (which is what it is) began when three young Israelis were abducted and murdered - provocation. Israel reacted with predictable heavy- handed anger and force leading to what we have seen happen in Gaza - reprisal. Hamas fought back with ambush and rocketing - heroic David/Goliath resistance (yet another irony). The brunt of death, destruction and suffering has fallen on innocent Gazan civilians, leading to widespread condemnation and opprobrium of Israel around the world. Result - an important propaganda victory for Hamas. Israel's stature with her friends has been eroded, and will doubtless erode further as long as the war goes on. The fact that Hamas has deliberately sited military posts near civilian targets - a tactic that would do credit to any previous guerrilla movement - has been ignored, as have Hamas atrocities against Israeli civilians and Palestinian "collaborators". The Hamas political leadership has cause for great satisfaction.
I am not taking sides here; I am simply trying to provide an analysis that I think is missing from the discussion about Gaza. The UN is right -any future war crimes trial should see both Israelis and Hamas in the dock.
How sad it is that Hamas and Israelis worship the same God, to whom they both pray for victory.

Hamas fighters pray.

Israeli soldiers pray.