Hamas - a Provocation Too Far?

 

Like everyone else, I was surprised at the news that broke on Saturday. So much has happened in such a short time, that we've forgotten our initial shock. As Foreign Policy.com said:

"TEL AVIV, Israel—Israel is reeling from an unprecedented incursion of Hamas militants across the Gaza border early Saturday that killed at least 250 people and wounded more than 1,400, with the death toll expected to rise."

And it did. CBS News said yesterday: 

"As of Thursday afternoon, Israel's military said Hamas' attack killed more than 1,200 people, including at least 27 Americans, and left some 2,800 people wounded. At least 1,537 people, including 447 children, have been killed in Gaza by Israel's retaliatory strikes, the Gaza Ministry of Health said, adding that more than 6,000 others were wounded".

As expected, there has been justified international anger at the hideous atrocities committed by the Hamas terrorists, and now condemnation of Israeli retaliation. What has not happened is any analysis of what initiated this attack - and that, I believe, is the crucial aspect. Putting it simply: why did Hamas launch this attack, and why was it so brutal?

The answer, I believe, is that it is part of a strategy that I have detected in guerrilla/terrorist/resistance movements before. It is the use of provocation - the provocation by said movements against their stronger and/or occupying enemies. As I have said before, it goes back to the French occupation of Spain during the Napoleonic wars ("guerrilla" is a Spanish word). It involves attacks by the terrorists that sting their enemies into using excess force as retaliation, in order to alienate the civilian population. The retaliation, such as it is, will cause deaths to innocent and uninvolved civilians and thus lead to an increase of support for the guerrillas. In more recent times, it was used by Soviet partisans in "quiet" areas behind German lines in WW2. Since the war, it has been used extensively by liberation movements in post-colonial wars. The American bombing of North Viet-Nam, which strengthened support for the NVA/Viet Cong and Bloody Sunday (1972) which led to a huge increase in IRA recruitment are two examples. The Philippeville Massacre (1955), during the Algerian Civil War, saw the Algerian FLN slaughter 123 French civilians. In response, the French Army killed about 12 000 people, according to the FLN. Again, this led to an increase in recruitment and, like today, international concern and condemnation of America, Britain and France. Recently, we have seen Islamic terror organisations, including ISIS, using provocation in order to stir up Islamophobia, again, with the aim of recruiting alienated Muslims.

It hardly needs spelling out that this explains the latest Hamas action very clearly. Their atrocities against Israeli civilians, hideous as they are, I believe were part of the Hamas plan, despite their denials: As Channel Four reported:

"Challenged by Channel 4 News’ Cathy Newman that Hamas’s attacks on Israeli citizens were unprovoked, a spokesperson for the militant group said on Saturday that “we were never thinking to attack civilians”."

 This is euphemistically called being "economical with the truth". As Rajan Menon comments in The Guardian: 

"During one of my several trips to Israel, I visited Sderot, thanks to an Israeli friend who loved showing his country to non-Israelis... After Hamas’s 7 October attack on Israel, a horrifying video of Sderot emerged. Gunmen from Hamas... roamed its streets in pickup trucks and on foot. They had a common purpose of shooting anyone they encountered: pedestrians, people at a bus stop, motorists and motorcyclists".

We recoil with horror at these crimes, but we need to understand that this is all part of the Hamas strategy. The horrific nature of these events is bringing about a ferocious Israeli response - and Hamas wanted this, even though it led to the deaths of many of their own fighters. And, please note, these Hamas fighters were prepared to die, which bears out the view by Alexander Solzhenitsyn that men can only commit great acts of evil when they think they are doing good.

The next strategic aim of Hamas is to exploit the understandable Israeli assaults on Gaza. As reported this morning, the Israelis are giving innocent Gaza residents 24 hours to move to the south of the Gaza Strip. Significantly (to me), Hamas are telling these residents not to go. Of course not. If all non-combatants left, Hamas would be unable to blame the Israelis for the deaths of innocent civilians. Hamas has clearly been planning for this war for some time, and will have prepared defences, and defensive plans. Part of the planning is to cause massive civilian casualties in order to elicit widespread international condemnation. Besides this, Israeli bombing will have created huge areas of ruined buildings. As the Red Army showed in WW2, ruined buildings can make formidable fortresses, difficult to capture. I think Hamas are hoping to turn the defence of Gaza into one big battle of Stalingrad, making the Israelis pay a high price in both blood and prestige.

The inevitable civilian suffering of the impending Israeli invasion means nothing to Hamas. To them, as I have hopefully made clear, the suffering of the innocent is a great recruiting sergeant. More will be done, more will be said, and many more will have to die. It's only just begun. It could lead to a wider conflict, and prove to be a provocation too far. Not that Hamas will be too bothered about that. I am sure they have planned for it.