Hamas Strategy and The New Front Line in the UK

 Well, if my analysis of Hamas strategy in my post of Friday 13th is correct, the Hamas planning staff must be smirking with satisfaction at the present situation in Gaza. Israel, as Hamas would have expected, has launched a ferocious bombing campaign that is taking a terrible toll on innocent civilians. Current UN figures put the Gaza casualty rate at 5,087. Israel, as expected, asserts that they are launching "surgical strikes" - viewers of the plight of Gaza civilians, especially in the hospitals, understandably dismiss this. There is now worldwide protest, spearheaded by Palestinians and their allies abroad, against Israel's actions - strangely, I have noted no call for Hamas to be held to account for the October 7th atrocities, or for the release of Israeli hostages.

All this is working in Hamas's favour. The spotlight of blame has moved away from them decisively. Astutely, they have released several hostages and appear to be wanting to present themselves to the world as rational beings. But they have released only a few hostages. They have not been cowed into ending missile launches, and appear unmoved by the all-too-real possibility of an Israeli invasion. It's thought that the USA , the UK and other allies of Israel are acting as a restraining influence. This is denying Hamas what I believe to be their main war aim - to entice the IDF into a costly and bloody urban struggle, rather like the Battle of Stalingrad. The difference, of course, will be that Hamas, unlike the Red Army defenders of Stalingrad, can fade away into the civilian population after inflicting as many Israeli casualties as possible. They will return, I believe, when they have recruited a new generation of fighters, embittered by the present Israeli onslaught, and recommence the war.

Should the Israelis not invade, however unlikely that is, Hamas will consider it a victory. They will recruit more combatants to their ranks and plan for another attack. No wonder, then, that (assuming I'm right) Hamas strategists are pleased with the results of their aggression on October 7th.

But there is another area where Hamas is seeing progress and where they have much to be pleased about. It is happening here in the UK.

The first triumph for Hamas here is the rise of anti-Semitism since October 7th. The Community Security Trust (CST) has logged  89 incidents that it classed as "anti-Jewish hate" from 7-10 October. Sky News wrote on 12th October:

"This was an increase of 324% compared to the 21 antisemitic incidents recorded over the same period last year, the group (CST) said. The incidents included six assaults, three instances of damage to Jewish property, 66 related to abusive behaviour and 22 took place online".

It's got worse since the 12th. Since then, the pace and number of the attacks has grown. Some Jewish schools have closed, many Jews are frightened to walk the streets and, says The Guardian:

"...the Metropolitan police said 75 antisemitic offences occurred from 30 September to 13 October this year, while 12 were recorded in the same period in 2022. Incidents reported to police, which may include non-crimes, increased sevenfold year on year, from 14 to 105".

Besides this, there has been a rise in Islamophobic violence. Reuters comment, noting the rise in violence:

"London police said on Friday they had recorded a 1,353% increase in antisemitic offences this month compared to the same period last year, while Islamophobic offences were up 140% in the wake of the attack by Hamas on Israel".

An example of the Islamophobic/anti-Palestinian backlash was noted by the BBC on the 20th:

"Hello, do you do takeaway?
"OK. I'll come over and take away your life."
This is the shocking kind of conversation that is repeatedly taking place at Shakeshuka - a Palestinian takeaway in London - amid a wave of abuse being suffered by Islamic communities in the capital.
A barrage of threatening calls has been sparked by the recent surge in violence in the Middle East.
Threats have left some staff too frightened to go into work, and the establishment has been forced to make significant changes in its operations".

Hamas have not commented on the rise in communal hatreds in this country (and abroad), but they must be pleased how what they see as their war is having detrimental effects on daily life in countries that support Israel. In fact, I think they would welcome it getting worse. It can only benefit them politically. 

But the present conflict benefits certain political groups here, also...

Taking advantage of the Gaza conflict to gain political advantage is the patron saint of Brexit, our old pal, Nigel Farage. Speaking for the far Right-but-not-fascist political element, he, and other "commentators" on GB News and elsewhere, have sided with Israel. Although I suspect that there are anti-Semites among this type, Farage has seized the opportunity to arouse fears of a refugee influx from Gaza. Deriding Hamza Yousaf's call for Palestinian refugees to be admitted to the UK, Farage writes, on the GB News website:

"Now I'm going to give you some stats from Denmark that are very shocking. In 1992, Denmark gave refuge to 321 Palestinians. By 2019, the government produced results for what had happened to them.
64% of those that have been given refuge had obtained criminal records. 34% of their children had obtained criminal records. And bear in mind, many of the children hadn't yet grown up and the vast majority were living on welfare".

A more blatant example of how to whip up hatred would be hard to find. As far as I know, the vast majority of Palestinians living in Britain are law-abiding UK citizens. There is, of course, a pro-Hamas element that scream hate slogans on pro-Palestinian marches and are undoubtedly involved in anti-Semitic attacks, but Farage's attempt to smear all Palestinian refugees is deplorable, if unsurprising. But there are other far right groups active on this front...

The British extreme right has been divided by this, and previous, Gaza conflicts. Put simply, they hate Jews and Muslims in equal measure, and struggle to decide whose side they are on. This happens abroad as well. I remember, some years ago in Berlin, neo-Nazis on a Gaza march attacked a group of anti-Zionist Jews. As Searchlight Magazine says: 

"A broad swathe of extremists, ranging from Nigel Farage to EDL founder ‘Tommy Robinson’, have tried to exploit the situation to promote Islamophobia.
At the opposite pole are some of Britain’s old-school nazis including Patriotic Alternative leader Mark Collett, who have been as antisemitic as they dare to be without breaking either the Public Order Act or the Terrorism Act.
And some racists including former BNP führer Nick Griffin have tried to pitch themselves somewhere between Robinson and Collett, taking advantage of the slaughter to stir up racial and religious hatred in all directions, while pretending that they are ‘neutral’ towards Middle East politics".

Mark Collett (seen above) might almost be regarded as the head of Hamas UK in some of his recorded utterances. In one of his blurbs on Telegram, he says:

“In the face of Zionist terror the Palestinians in Gaza are standing firm. …How any nationalist can watch this unfolding and not at the very least respect those brave souls is beyond me.”

This would seem to breach the provisions of the Terrorism Act, and, as I know very well how Collett's kindred spirits in Patriotic Alternative (PA) share his views, I believe that PA members will be active in the anti-Semitic attacks that now blight our country.

All told, then, Hamas can have great cause for satisfaction. They have perpetrated the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust, provoked an Israeli retaliation so ferocious that it has drawn widespread international condemnation and, as I hope to have made clear, caused internal conflict in the lands of Israel's friends. Like I said, Hamas strategists must be smirking.

I have aimed here to provide an analysis of Hamas strategic thinking. I have sought to be objective and analytical. I apologise if I seem indifferent to these terrible events.