UK Bombs Syria? - a Ridiculous Mouse

There is a Latin proverb: "Parturiant montes, nascetur ridiculus mus" - "The mountains are in labour, and a ridiculous mouse will be born". More prosaically put, "Big fuss, small result". No better example of the truth of this can be found than the present controversy over the projected UK bombing of ISIS targets in Syria. Despite argument and counter-argument, the fact remains that UK involvement in this campaign would be very limited; we do not have the aircraft to make more than a token contribution. There also is the fact that such actions are not proving very successful. When France promised retaliation for the hideous Paris atrocities and launched air strikes against ISIS bases, ISIS simply evacuated their bases. They are not going to sit in static positions, waiting for us to bomb them. They have been bombed relentlessly for a long time and still control large swathes of territory. Nor have they been prevented from launching attacks against innocent people in Europe and North Africa.

This is not to say that air strikes have been pointless; they have certainly helped to stop the ISIS advance and supported anti-ISIS offensives, particularly by the gallant Kurds. It does, however, point to the limitations of what can be achieved by air power alone. As a US military adviser said during the Viet-Nam War:
"Trying to win a guerrilla war by aerial bombing is like trying to delouse yourself with a club"
Even in conventional war, it can prove controversial. There is a strange convergence of opinion on the Allied bombing of Germany in WW2. The pacifist Left and neo-Nazi revisionist "historians" howl with condemnation of this offensive, conveniently forgetting the fact that the German Luftwaffe were every bit as merciless wherever their invading forces went. But the ruthlessness of both sides failed in one crucial aim: they did not succeed in destroying the morale of the enemy civilian populations, despite many thousands on both sides being killed. The USA bombed North Viet-Nam for years during the Viet-Nam War, only to fail in the same way. As a North Vietnamese officer said after the war:
“The Americans thought that the more bombs they dropped, the quicker we would fall to our knees and surrender. But the bombs heightened rather than dampened our spirit.”
The fanatics of ISIS are unlikely to be any different, and the killing of innocent non-ISIS civilians could well be counter-productive.
The only way out of this, I think, is to co-ordinate air power with ground offensives. As ISIS has succeeded in alienating all the major nations. It ought to be possible now for united action against ISIS, with or without the deployment of ground troops (special forces are already there). How possible is it? Well, the shooting down of a Russian aircraft by the Turks does not bode well for unity. ISIS must be dancing around in glee.

The Paris Massacres - Triumph Through the Tears?

My mind, like that of every sane person, is still in a state of shock following last Friday's atrocities in Paris. For so long now, I have been commenting upon terrorism, terrorists and their methods. This year alone, we have seen innocents slaughtered in Paris, Tunisia, Egypt and finally Paris again. Yet again, I find myself struggling to analyse the aims and intentions of Jihadi killers - usually fanatics from ISIS. I shall do so again here, as I feel I owe it to the victims of these attacks to try and make some sense of such despicable crimes. So much has been said already in the media, but I shall make an attempt to bring a personal perspective .
I was pleased, if by no means happy, to see a terrorism expert recognise that the Paris attacks are meant as a provocation. He rightly said that ISIS want to bait France into a violent retaliation, either militarily in Syria, or by attacks on the Muslim community in France. This strategy, which I have written about before, is intended to further resentment against French society among already alienated Muslim youth, and thus bring Jihadi groups more recruits.
These crimes are also attacks upon European culture. Isis hate the very idea of people enjoying themselves on beaches, in concerts, restaurants, sports fixtures and concert halls, most of which were viciously assaulted on Friday evening. As Billy Bragg said on Twitter:
"This is an attack on anyone who goes to a bar, to a restaurant, to a gig or a game. Abhorrent."
When David Cameron talks of ISIS being an existential threat to us, this is what he means. Their aim is to create a miserable, joyless existence for all humanity, and they are prepared to inhumanly slaughter innocent people of all ages to do it. They are also prepared to die to bring this about; only one terrorist was shot dead on Friday evening, while the other seven committed suicide. This is because, like Hitler's Einsatzgruppen or Stalin's NKVD, they believed they were doing the right thing. We must not lose sight of that. You cannot change beliefs unless you understand them - especially fanatical beliefs.
These, I believe, are the main aims of ISIS strategy, but there is also the question of their tactics. As has been noted, ISIS are slowly giving ground militarily in Syria and Iraq, and as a tactic, and perhaps also a morale raiser, are launching increasingly bloody attacks on the European mainland. As we have seen, they like "soft" targets, where there is little or no chance of effective resistance. By massacring unarmed civilians, they are baiting European governments, effectively saying:
"See how weak you are. Despite your military muscle, you cannot protect your own citizens from us."
To their (twisted) minds, last Friday in Paris will be a great achievement. For the loss of just eight "martyrs", they have killed 129 "infidels", and wounded hundreds more. They might be losing on one front, but they will seek victory on other "fronts". It is not too far-fetched to say that all of us in Europe are on the front line against terrorism.
One aspect of these crimes puzzled me: how is it possible for terrorists in France to acquire AK-47 rifles so easily? The AK-47 has been a favourite with guerilla and terror groups for some time - the IRA called it "the widowmaker". France, like the UK, has strict gun laws. As Al-Jazeera says:
"In France individuals, except for certified collectors, are prohibited from owning military-class arms. Those hoping to possess a handgun or hunting rifle in France must pass a stringent background check and a mental health evaluation and must obtain a license."
The answer would appear to be: smuggling and the Internet. It is only too easy to move illegal goods and weapons around Europe. I am reliably informed, for example, that it is possible to drive from Brussels to Paris without any customs checks. The source of these weapons appears to be so-called "failed states" and conflict zones. Again, as Al-Jazeera says:
" Weapons left over from wars are also often trafficked across borders, which was the case after the Libyan revolution in 2011. The New York–based nonprofit Foreign Policy Association says that there are millions of weapons from the conflict and there is little regulation by government officials. "
The "dark internet" is also a means to an end of buying illegal guns. But this is not a French problem; it is a European problem, and we must unite to deal with it.
Personally, I see no alternative now other than to eradicate ISIS by all means necessary - even if we have to forge alliances with Russia and (I can't believe I'm saying this) Iran. Even then, we are in for a long, hard battle, and ISIS will fight like cornered rats on steroids. Nonetheless, they must be defeated, despite tragedies like that in Paris on Friday evening. I suppose people will object to this view by pointing out, correctly, that ISIS only came into being because of the invasion of Iraq. That does not preclude action by us now - if we caused the problem, then we should help to solve it.
I don't know if anyone in Paris or France will get to read this blog, but, should they do so, I wish to send my condolences and those of my regular contributors and readers. Our hearts are with you, and we know that the City of Light will be victorious over the forces of darkness. Through your tears, you will triumph. As your national hymn says:
"Aux armes, citoyens !
Formez vos bataillons !
Marchons ! Marchons !
Qu'un sang impur
Abreuve nos sillons !"