Gaza, Lebanon, Israel: Conflict - Who Benefits?

 

As I type, the proverbial balloon is going up in the Middle East. The BBC is announcing an Iranian missile attack against Israel and Iran has made it clear that it is prepared to mount another. Israeli troops have entered Lebanon and Israel is continuing to carry out airstrikes in urban areas. Hezbollah remains defiant, despite a number of its key operatives and leaders being liquidated by surgical airstrikes that only killed a few innocent civilians - at least that's how the Israelis see it. Instead of entering the discussion of present events, at this point, I would like to draw attention to the approaching first anniversary of the present situation on October 7th.

Last year, shortly after the October 7th Hamas incursion into Israel, I wrote a post titled "Hamas - a Provocation Too Far?".  I contended that the Hamas onslaught, and attendant atrocities, were a deliberate provocation to draw Israel into a massive over-reaction that would cause huge civilian casualties and lead to international opinion turning against Israel. It brought me up with a jolt when I stumbled upon a post I wrote in 2014, and had part-forgotten about. In "Israel, Gaza and a Hamas Victory", I wrote about the Gaza conflict of that year, which was on nothing like the scale of the present ongoing conflict. Hamas killed three Israeli civilians and Israel launched a furious punitive strike by way of retaliation - like that we saw in Gaza following the October 7th attacks last year, but much more intense and lasting to the present day.  The UN said that both sides had committed war crimes in 2014 - this is even more the case now. Back then, I hoped that things might improve. Well, hope springs eternal, but I got that wrong. But I think I got one thing right. I said (quoting myself):

"...we should not let our feelings for the deaths of innocents in Gaza or Israel cloud our judgement or analysis of the underlying strategic achievements and blunders of both parties."

I also said that the world's reaction had been adverse towards Israel: 

"The brunt of death, destruction and suffering has fallen on innocent Gazan civilians, leading to widespread condemnation and opprobrium of Israel around the world. Result - an important propaganda victory for Hamas".

I now know what deja vu feels like. I could just as easily have written those words now. And yes, Hamas did celebrate the end of that conflict as seen in the photo; whether the rank and file of Hamas feel that way now is debatable. But as far as the leadership of Hamas are concerned - especially the strategic planners - they have cause for satisfaction. I repeat: Hamas strategists must have known that their atrocities would lead to Israel unleashing overwhelming force. They knew from previous experience that the ensuing devastation and inevitable civilian death toll would lead to international opprobrium towards Israel. They had prepared tunnels and fortified housing in order to conduct a long-lasting guerrilla war - and they are still fighting, despite Israeli efforts. They might even have hoped that the Gaza conflict would lead to a widening of the war. If so - and I believe that I am right - they must be smirking with pride at their achievement. The huge number of deaths and injuries of their combatants, the dead, wounded and injured civilians, will not have dismayed these men. Hamas is a death cult, and they will see no need for remorse. Their biggest achievement will be that they now have a huge wellspring of hatred for Israel that will endure for generations. In 2034, should Hamas launch another attack against Israel, they will have many more recruits from Gaza for their combat units. And surely we can understand why the civilian in the photo below, carrying his child, dead or injured by Israeli action, might have an abiding sense of searing animosity towards the state of Israel? Yes, and the Hamas strategists will be very pleased about that.

As for the present day fighting in Lebanon, while the Hezbollah rocketing of Israel is reprehensible, the Israeli airstrikes on urban areas in Lebanon are working well for the death mongering mandarins of Hamas. Bombed-out Lebanese people are vehemently expressing antagonism towards Israel and Hezbollah will prove to be very tough fighters, as they have shown in the past. That could well draw in more Israeli troops - which could weaken their operations in Gaza. How long Israel can sustain a war on two fronts is a matter for conjecture, but war weariness could well set in.

So, to answer my own question - who benefits from this war? Well, as I hope I have made clear, my view is that the Hamas leadership and planning staff have succeeded considerably in their strategic aims, if not, as yet, decisively - but they will have expected that. That's for the long term. So far, so bloody, so good - for them.

I wonder though: is there anyone else happy to see how the Middle East conflict is absorbing so much international attention? Well, there could be...

I have said this before, but October 7th is Vladimir Putin's birthday.

All a coincidence, of course...